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Wyoming’s primary elections are kind of like the general, while we don’t write off all races for November.
The strong Republican majority decides the front-runners for positions like governor, US senators and representatives, and plenty of positions in the state legislature.
The big shock after August’s primary? The further-right Freedom Caucus lost its control of the state house after just two years in the majority. And locally in Jackson Hole, two Democratic incumbents were ousted in the race for Commission.
The following has been lightly edited for clarity and length.
Sophia Boyd-Fliegel: To break down why these came as a surprise, I’m here in the KHOL studios with reporters Evan Robinson-Johnson and Jenna McMurtry. Evan, you spent the evening at a watch party in Wilson where two first-time candidates won, but they’re kind of a part of a group of three. What made these candidates stick together?
Evan Robinson-Johnson: I think that early on there was an alignment on anti-growth messaging between the three. You have two younger challengers who have struggled to find housing in the community and one who has pushed back on some of the housing projects that we’ve seen proposed. And they also all knew each other or found kind of a natural alliance early on. So, between Ali Dunford, Luther Probst, and Karyn Chin, all three kind of campaigned together.
They had a lot of similarities in their messaging, and they all three got the endorsement from Shelter JH, one of the main nonprofits here that makes endorsements in the race, which just made it that much easier for voters to see them as kind of a joint-block.
SBF: And I understand that it was kind of a nail-biter when results were rolling in. What was it like on scene?
ERJ: I think that’s the risk of having a joint watch party. There are three people, and if all three hadn’t won, then there would have been some sadness or some, you know, ‘Well, I’m really happy for her.’ And that was kind of the role that Karyn Chin was in because the very first result had her in fourth trailing Mark Newcomb, the three-term incumbent board chair, which again wasn’t necessarily a surprise, but it was definitely evident on her face and just kind of the energy of the room of like, okay, this could be kind of an awkward evening.
SBF: So she was behind, and then mid-race pulled ahead?
ERJ: Absolutely.
SBF: And the margin, how close was it at the end?
ERJ: She ended up winning by around 90 votes, which was pretty significant. She had 780 votes to Mark [Newcomb], just under 700. It was significant enough.
SBF: And you mentioned that all of these candidates were backed by a housing advocacy group here, ShelterJH. And I’ve been to these forums that you’ve helped host where all of the county commission candidates are talking about affordable housing. No one’s anti-housing. So what actually sets them apart to earn that support?
ERJ: I think that’s a fair question. Even at the trail end of the campaign, Mark Newcomb was telling me, you know, ‘I haven’t heard a strong stance from some of the challengers on projects like northern South Park,’ which is a huge proposed development here.
But they really leaned on their personal stories throughout: the fact that Ali Dunford is a renter, the fact that Karyn Chin lives in a tiny home, and this sense that they would support other workers in the community. Ali Dunford famously founded Hole Food Rescue here, a nonprofit that provides affordable food for workers in the community. It was pretty easy for voters, I think, to see that track record and get a sense that they are going to support those more vulnerable community members going forward.
SBF: Jenna, you are also at the polling stations all day. Did you have any idea from those conversations that the legislature was gonna swing away from the Freedom Caucus?
Jenna McMurtry: It’s hard to say here because we don’t have any Freedom Caucus members representing us, but there was definitely a sentiment that the state needs to swing back and pick more moderate candidates. In Jackson, we’re in the bluest county in a red state, so a lot of Dems switch parties to tilt the axis.
SBF: You were hearing a trend that people needed to see change in the legislature. But I think it did come as a surprise to most of the state, no?
JM: I think it certainly did. That’s what the headlines statewide said this week: we weren’t really expecting the Freedom Caucus to see as many losses as 14 seats at the state legislator level.
SBF: What else animated the voters that you talked to, Jenna?
JM: On a local level, everyone’s always talking about affordable housing and actually seeing shovels hit the ground. A local educator, though, brought up property tax cuts that weren’t on the ballot this time, but in November will be.
We might see one of the biggest tax cuts in state history and folks are worried about what that means for our hospitals and our schools. But on the other hand, there are retirees who are worried that they won’t be able to stay in Jackson any longer because they won’t have the steady income they had when they worked. Their property taxes have been going up, especially since 2020.
SBF: Even though property taxes weren’t on the ballot this time, we can really expect it to be a big force in November. Is that right?
JM: Yeah, for sure. I talked to former wildlife biologist and Wyoming Wetlands Society co-founder Bill Long and this is a topic that was really important to him.
Bill Long: Long-term residents are being run out of Jackson because of property taxes. I’d like to see something changed to address that.
SBF: Evan, what about you?
ERJ: I talked with a lot of younger voters who were just excited to see younger candidates run locally, but also a conservation nonprofit director who kind of exemplified the fact that conservation as this counterforce to growth here is really top of mind. So here’s Jenny Fitzgerald [of Jackson Hole Conservation Alliance]:
Jenny Fitzgerald: This is where we can really hone in and decide if we’re going to put our ecosystem first — it is what generates our economy locally — or if we are going to continue to let development pressures and capitalism take over this place. It really brought us all here because of the mountains and the wildlife.
SBF: So, Jenna, while Evan was in Wilson, you went to the GOP watch party at Sidewinders. And one of the things that we’ve been following is the state GOP making endorsements before the primary. This is the first time this has happened, and it’s actually being litigated, so it’s a little up in the air. But we didn’t do that here with the local GOP. Why is that?
JM: On a local level, we didn’t see a lot of contested races. There was only one for the GOP. It was the coroner’s race. They don’t make those pre-primary endorsements like the state level did this year.
SBF: Evan, we talked about how the big statewide headlines were that the moderate Republicans picked up some momentum, especially in these bigger races, like for governor, secretary of state, and regaining control of the House after the Freedom Caucus took majority. So what is your sense of why that actually happened?
ERJ: I think some of it came down to just smart campaigning from some of the candidates. There was a sense from voters that the ones who won were from ‘real Wyoming,’ however they might define that. And I think that showed that there was a real trust built with some of those winners.
Eric Barlow is really similar to Mark Gordon, our outgoing governor, and there could even be some sexism there where people don’t want a woman governor in Trump’s pick, Megan Degenfelder.
I heard that Robert Short, the secretary of state primary winner, ran a good campaign, and some of the winners over those Freedom Caucus candidates were people like Ogden Driskill. He’s an established lawmaker who people know and trust in the state. So his race was still incredibly close, and he told me it was splitting up friend groups and families in his community near Devil’s Tower.
I think easily this election could have gone a different way. And it’s a sigh of relief for a lot of voters here in Teton County and will set up the state for some serious changes over the next few years.
SBF: Thank you, guys, so much for being out in the field and for being here with me today.
