Wyoming cattle ranchers will face stiffer competition the next three months with tariff-free imported beef now on the market.
President Trump’s late August decision to waive tariffs on 300,000 metric tons of mixed ground beef was a response to record-high prices. But not everyone agrees on the math — or that consumer wallets will find cheaper hamburgers at the store as a result.
“That’s only around 2 to 2.5% …of what we consume here in the U.S,” said Christian Bastian, University of Wyoming professor of agricultural and applied economics. “That supply should not have a large impact on beef prices at the retail counter.”
For U.S. ranchers, the policy creates “a lot of risk and uncertainty,” Bastian said. He forecasts high beef costs to continue into the fall in the backdrop of ongoing supply issues, like high corn prices, closing processing plants and a cattle shortage, each struggling to keep up with the American appetite for the popular protein.
“We have seen a psychological drop in prices here in the last week,” he said. “But fundamentally, we still have tight cattle supplies.”
The tariff announcement comes as cattle ranchers endure a drought-ridden year in an already competitive market. The intensifying El Niño year has strained grass and feed supply, prompting earlier cattle sales.
This year’s lackluster snowpack, meager precipitation and record-breaking summer heat has put a strain on feed, so some ranchers are selling cattle earlier than they’d like.
“The reality is we raise grass and we market it through the cattle,” said Mark Eisele, a Cheyenne-area rancher. “Without that grass, we don’t have the cattle.”
But some of Eisele’s cattle also took a 10% loss after the president’s announcement. He used to head the Wyoming Stockgrowers Association and the National Cattlemen’s Beef Association.
“No change in the cattle, just a change in the psychology of the market,” Eisele said.
On a big yearling, Eisele said he’s faced as much as a $300 loss.
“I can tell you nearly all the cattlemen in the country are very upset about this,” Eisele said, though he acknowledged the Trump administration has also helped prop up a volatile industry.
The state association’s current president, Jim Magagna, said Wyoming ranchers have voiced their widespread opposition to the state’s congressional delegates.
“We’re certainly delivering a strong message that these… are harmful to our industry and not helpful to the consumer,” Magagna said.
U.S. Sen. John Barrasso, a Republican, decried the tariff-free beef imports in a post on X.
“Americans want US beef on the table – not foreign imports,” the post reads. “…It needs to be easier – not harder – for Wyoming ranchers to feed America.”
U.S. Sen. Cynthia Lummis, who is retiring at the end of her term, has not made a public statement but in May acknowledged the losses that would come with lower tariffs. U.S. Rep. Harriet Hageman, who is gunning for Lummis’ seat in the November general election,has championed protections for domestic ranchers in other legislation. Both are Republicans.
Just over a week after the announcement, U.S. Secretary of Agriculture Brooke Rollins announced federal initiatives to “Rebuild the Great American Beef Herd.” The main agenda items include protecting heifer retention, infrastructure support and farming loans.
King Ranch owner, Eisele, who likens his trade to “raising grass,” said help from the feds has been appreciated under the current administration. The latest move, he said, feels “contradictory.”
Amid in-flux markets, Eisele said marketing labels like “all-natural” and “hormone-free” will keep his product more competitive.
