Gray Powell’s foray into coffee imports started while working at the Mexican Cantina Merry Piglets, which is not exactly known for coffee.
Restocking in the basement one day, Powell found himself asking the coffee roasters who shared the space “what the deal was” with their trade.
So began the switch from a seven-year stint as a bartender and manager to buying sample bags from farmers and getting in touch with importers.
Jackson Hole Roasters source coffee beans from a wide range of countries: Mexico, Guatemala, Nicaragua, Honduras, Colombia, Peru, Ethiopia, Indonesia and Rwanda. In general, most of the top coffee producing countries are facing a 10% tariff, save for Nicaragua at 18% and Vietnam at 48%. (Jenna McMurtry/KHOL)
Now, after 16 months as the owner of Jackson Hole Roasters, Powell has already seen coffee prices hit record highs in January. That was in-part because of a climate-induced poor production season on top of an already volatile market.
With the Trump administration causing an additional frenzy with blanket 10% universal tariffs, an extended rough patch could be around the corner for the coffee industry.
“Coffee prices are up regardless of tariffs,” Powell said. “And obviously tariffs don’t help.”
Though the global coffee market has stabilized since January, if prices were to go up again and President Donald Trump doesn’t waiver on his proposed higher tariffs, Powell said he may have to consider prioritizing some beans over others.
For instance, Nicaragua’s higher tariff at 18% would make it harder to turn a profit on one of the roastery’s top-selling beans. It could mean that he would instead have to lean more on Honduran beans for the roastery’s “Moose Juice” blend.
For now, most coffee producing countries Powell works with are slated to be on the receiving end of a 10% tariff but could be higher. That’s if Trump even goes ahead with the higher tariffs at all, after pausing most of what he called “reciprocal tariffs” on Wednesday for 90 days.
“Today [the tariffs might be] there, tomorrow they might not be, who knows,” Powell said.
Though tariffs have historically been used to incentivize domestic production, experts have said that doesn’t really work with coffee.
“Coffee needs high altitude, high humidity and low temperature swings,” Powell said, referencing a combination the United States notably lacks.
Few American agricultural hubs have an ecosystem ripe for coffee production, save for Hawaii and Puerto Rico, a U.S. territory. Coffee hasn’t taken off in either of the islands as Americans still consume 80% of their coffee from the Latin American continent alone.
It would take both the tariffs and the return of high global commodity prices for Powell to go as far as raising prices. Right now, he said that is less likely, though still on his mind.
For Diane Guslander, owner of Great Northern Coffee Co., there’s a specific line that has to be crossed before she would pass on any increase to consumers: between 50 cents and $1 a pound. As for whether that will happen, and by how much she would raise prices, the Jackson Hole-based business owner doesn’t have a concrete answer.
“We will just wait and see,” she said. “I don’t like to increase my prices unless I have to.”
Diane Guslander, owner of Great Northern Coffee Company, inspects the roasting process. (Courtesy)
Over the four decades that she’s been in the field, Guslander has seen plenty of market fluctuations for the green, or raw, fruit that comes in 150-pound burlap sacks. Those price increases, she said, haven’t typically been the result of tariffs.
In her inner-circles of coffee roasting professionals, Guslander said the industry is holding out hope that since the United States has few options to produce coffee itself, the commodity will be spared.
Greater North Coffee Co., recognizable for its flashy green and gold bags, employs eight people. Keeping those employees and paying the company’s mortgages is Guslander’s top priority and the reason she would raise prices.
The same goes for Powell’s business, which employs a staff of six.
“Hopefully the tariffs don’t go into effect, but if they do, we’re still gonna be roasting and selling coffee one way or another,” Powell said.
